Hear me out.
While Americans seemed to have forgotten every Donald Trump 1.0 did from 2017 to 2021, Australians, maybe because of the shorter electoral cycle, seem to be triggered every time Dutton does anything that even vaguely reminds them of the omnishambles that was the Morrison government. We have flashbacks and go into fetal position.
Polipedia tracks voter sentiment across social channels and geographies. We have real-time data on how Australians react to politicians and political news. We look at which articles are the most commented on, discussed and shared and build out predictive hypothesis models.
So every time I have a look at the sentiment analysis for Peter Dutton, the reaction from average Australians even for the smallest of gaffs is disproportionately large. We are looking at Peter Dutton through the trauma of the daggy Dad that was Scott Morrison. The incompetence and neglect of a man who wanted the job but didn’t want to do the work.
Here is an example of the word cloud around the end of the work from home policy for public servants:
And here is how Australians reacted to his announcement about sacking public servants:
Every time Dutton announces policy, backflips or prevaricates, Australians are reminded of Scott Morrison, or worse, it draws attention to the crazy that is happening across the Pacific in the USA.
Dutton is especially toxic amongst women and close to matching depths of negative sentiment Morrison did in the last weeks of his campaign. When you hit -93% amongst 51% of Australia’s 17.9 million voters, you need to stop measuring for the curtains in the Lodge Kirribilli House.
You cannot win an election without women on side. Scott Morrison learnt that the hard way no matter what Jenny and the girls thought of him.
Dissecting Dutton’s policies for women, it isn’t just that women react viscerally to him, he has nothing for them.
All he has called for matched investment in tax relief, women’s health and mental health support as has Labor.
The only discernible difference is that he has called for stiffer penalties for perpetrators of domestic violence. Not innovative for the cop from Queensland. And when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.
Dutton has to appeal to women to win. And at the moment – he isn’t doing anything to show his leadership.
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