The Intergenerational Report for 2026 was published on Monday, with the federal government posting its predictions for the next 40 years of the Australian economy.
While the report generously suggests the budget will be healthy, the economy will be strong, and spending will be low by 2066, its projections paint a harder picture for young Australians.
This struggle is something most Australians know all too well, as we face rising cost of living, job insecurity, and declining mental health. The difference for young people is that the government still predicts fundamental barriers between working-age Australians and home ownership will persist all the way to 2066.
The report states that “intergenerational equity is being strained by the long-term decline in home ownership and the pressures that an ageing population and structural trends in the tax base are placing on working-age Australians.” Yet while other sectors of the report lay out detailed plans for a fruitful future, the plan for closing this gap amounts to little more than “the Government is working to improve by making the budget more sustainable.”
Younger generations are also facing smaller wealth gains than previous generations.
Although the average household’s real net worth has grown from $0.5 million in 1993–94 to over $1.3 million in 2019–20, this growth is concentrated in older households. In terms of personal income, over 80 per cent of those born in the 1950s earned more than their parents by their early 30s. For those born from the 1960s onwards, that figure has dropped to roughly two thirds, and the gap keeps widening. Those born in the 1990s haven’t seen any income gains in their early careers relative to those born in the 1980s.
It’s hard to voice these fears without sounding like another Gen-Z “screen-ager” complaining online. But at 20 years old, the next 40 years are the years I will build my career, start a family, and try to break into the housing market. It’s difficult to feel optimistic about that stretch of life when my own government is the one handing me the numbers that say it isn’t looking good.
The report suggests there would be roughly 250,000 more homeowners aged 25 to 34 today if ownership rates had held at 1981 levels. We simply don’t have the access to home ownership our parents did. On top of that, we’re expected to work longer than any generation of Australians before us, with workforce participation among people over 65 up 9.5 per cent since the 2002 Intergenerational Report. It’s not exactly a compelling pitch.
No wonder the fertility rate is expected to fall. Deaths are projected to outnumber births by the 2060s, with population growth slowing to 0.9 per cent a year over the next 40 years, down from 1.4 per cent over the past 40. The entire population will skew older by 2066.
Falling fertility is expected to be driven by delayed family formation and smaller family sizes, which are trends underpinned by evolving social, economic and cultural shifts common across advanced economies. The report frames this as “a milestone that many advanced economies have already surpassed,” but that framing doesn’t make it any less a symptom of a system straining under its own weight.
Between the pressure population change will put on government spending, an economy projected to double in size, and a housing market showing no sign of stabilising, there’s very little in the next 40 years convincing me to bring a child into it.
This report is just another piece of evidence that tells me that whether I own a home or have a child is not up to me. The numbers are choosing for me.
