How do you retain hope when tasked with determining, and then communicating to those who don’t always want to hear the facts, the brutal future realities of climate change?
Determining an answer to the above is a journey Dr Joëlle Gergis has personally made during her time as a lead author on the Sixth Assessment from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as through personally seeing the catastrophic impact of climate-related disasters here in Australia.
That hope she still has does not stem from any idea that the issue will simply go away. But rather from the “social tipping point” she believes is within reach, and knows will accelerate the social and cultural required to address the issue.
I spoke to the scientist just prior to her appearance at the Byron Bay Writers Festival last month, just as Gergis was launching her book, Humanity’s Moment: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope.
The first thing to note is the extraordinary career Gergis has achieved, being one of around 200 scientists selected from 60 countries all over the world to participate in the Sixth Assessment report, in a field that’s still dominated by men. Then you immediately feel her emotional connection to the issue of climate change — the heart that she brings in, and how honestly she shares the difficulty she had in coming to terms with the science indicating the shocking impacts ahead.
But as distressing as it is, Gergis retains hope and optimism.
She believes we’ve seen some exciting moments recently, in terms of the youth movement, as well as in Australian politics where voters pushed for change at the federal election. She also points to research finding that you only really need around 25 per cent of people to change a social norm and to create the social movements that have occurred throughout history.
“Once enough of a critical mass gets it and decides and says, “Enough is enough, we want things to be different,” then the rest of the people follow because a lot of people are influenced by other people around them,” she says.
“That’s not to say it’s a done deal, but actually, when you look back over the course of human history, it never is a done deal, where every single generation has to fight for an inch forward. Whether it’s for the rights of women, we’re still not there yet. I don’t need to tell you about all the inequalities around sort of gender pay gaps and so on and so forth. Those issues, they need active work on them. It’s the same thing with climate.”
Gergis also sees a role for everyone to play in addressing climate change, but it starts with accepting that climate change is here now.
“I think a lot of people think about climate change and they think about it as something happening in 2050 or at the end of the century. That feels really abstract, but we only really have to look at our lived experience of the last few years in this country to understand what climate change looks like in this country.
“You don’t have to be a climate scientist, you don’t have to even be a full-on climate activist or anything like that to make a difference in terms of being part of this critical mass that’s going to shift our cultural values around whether we’re okay with really seeing the destruction of the natural world and the stability of the climate system in our lifetime,” she says.
Gergis says that climate change is really an issue of inequality. She says that looking at climate change is about examining the structural issues around inequality, including a history of exploiting resources from poorer countries, as well as colonialism.
“Where we are right now is a cumulative experience of everything that’s come before us. The atmosphere is now loaded with carbon and it’s really starting to destabilize the planet, but also, we’re looking at the legacy of colonialism and inequality and these are things that we have the power to change. The first thing I think is bringing a real awareness to that initially and understanding that a lot of what’s going on right now is not right.
“I think most people would agree that they would like to grow up or bring their children up in a more just and equal world, and that is sort of intergenerational change.
There is a case for hope, especially in the individual actions that can create powerful collective action.
While not everyone has the same capacity to switch to renewable energy, buy an electric vehicle or put their hand up to run for office, there are more accessible options of voting, and seeking to be part of the social tipping point.
“There’s no other information you need after the Sixth Assessment report. Honestly, there’s nothing else that our scientific community can provide you guys with. That is the evidence that’s there. It’s only going to continue to strengthen. Basically, what we’re saying is that it is the direct implementation of the Paris agreement that’s really going to get us out of this mess. That means enacting strong and meaningful climate policy and not delaying it and thinking that we can start to decarbonize later on in the century. No, it’s actually going to be too late.”
It’s why the current decade is known as the critical decade.
“We need to start to half emissions really by 2030 and then really be getting to net zero by 2050 to really look and try to avert the worst aspects of climate change.
“That brings us back down to very much political and social systems, which is not the remit of science to be honest, but it is the remit of leaders out there in the communities that they are a part of whether it’s business community or wherever they may be plugged into. That’s why I feel that it is, ultimately, an optimistic moment.”