Australia is on course for a hung parliament at the next federal election, the latest YouGov polling shows, with the Coalition predicted to be in the best place to form government.
The polling released over the weekend found the Coalition, led by Peter Dutton, would likely win about 73 seats (with a lower estimate of 65 and an upper estimate of 80), two seats short of a majority government. It shows Labor winning around 66 seats (with a lower estimate of 59 and an upper estimate of 72).
Meanwhile, it predicts independents will win eight seats, the Katter Australia Party with one, the Centre Alliance winning one and the Greens dropping from their current four seats to just one.
It’s worth noting that a polling model that used the same technique before the last election in 2022 underestimated the support given to independents and the Greens.
If the scenario predicted plays out, the Albanese government is at risk of losing 15 seats and being the first single term administration since 1931.
How Dutton could form minority government
If election day plays out as predicted by the YouGov poll and neither of the majority parties wins at least 75 seats, it could be the Coalition in the best place to negotiate with the crossbench.
If the polling is accurate, Peter Dutton would need the support of at least three crossbench MPs to form a minority government.
Speaking in a 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, Dutton said in that scenario, there was a “conversation to have” with independents like Bob Katter, Dai Lee and Allegra Spender.
However Dutton told Sky News that other independents like Kate Chaney, Zoe Daniel and Monique Ryan “would never come our way”.
He also ruled out negotiating with the Greens.
The polling predicts that all of the current “teal” independents will be re-elected at the election (with most increasing their margin), and shows other independent candidates putting up strong competition against the Coalition in seats like Bradfield, Wannon and Cowper.
Interestingly, it predicts that Dai Le is under threat in her seat of Fowler, predicting that Labor will take back the seat.
What do the independents want?
If the polling is accurate, and the Coalition wins considerably more seats than Labor, many of the independents will be in a position where they may end up negotiating with Dutton. So what issues would the independents focus on in negotiations?
Speaking on Insiders, Allegra Spender, the independent MP for Wentworth, said her main concerns related to having a “stable government”, action on climate change, supporting young people by looking at housing and tax reform, and driving productivity and innovation in business.
“Those are three critical pieces in terms of making those decisions,” Spender said. “But…we have to wait to see where the numbers fall and see what happens.”
Spender said she was open to working with either Labor or the Coalition, but it would depend on the “seriousness” of what they put on the table.
“I have been explicit time and time again that I will work with either of the major parties in terms of forming government,” she said.
“I want to draw a couple of things. One is, I worked pretty closely with the Coalition on things like the industrial relations reform. This is where my view on the world and the Coalition’s view on the world, there are a lot of parallels. There’s a lot of sympathy,” she said.
“But on issues in relation to climate, I haven’t worked with the Coalition because I don’t think they are committed to a transition in terms of the most cost effective and, frankly, good for the climate transition that we have at the moment.
“So my point is, I take things on on the basis of the arguments and on the basis of the evidence, and I’m very open to working with a Coalition government, and I’m open to working with the Labor government, but that depends on what they’re actually going to put on the table, and the seriousness, frankly, of what they’re putting on the table.”
Ahead of the election, due to be held any time before May 17, the Coalition is yet to release many policies, except for a plan to build seven publicly-owned nuclear reactors across the country. The first of these plants would be operational by 2036, Dutton claims, although experts have questioned this date and suggest it is more likely to be the 2040s. It would mean Australia remains reliant on fossil fuels for longer than is currently forecasted.
Asked about Dutton’s plan for nuclear power, Spender said it simply “doesn’t stack up”.
“I’ve never been anti-nuclear power in Australia, but my big point…is that we have the next 10 years [and it] is what really matters in terms of this energy transition,” she said.
“Even putting climate aside, the issue is that 90 per cent of our coal fired power stations are going to close in the next 10 years. So we need to transition in the next 10 years. No one is saying nuclear is an option within the next 10 years, and so we need to do that in a way that is reliable, that is cost effective and is right for the environment.”
Spender said the only way to go is to “stay the course” and back renewables while giving businesses the certainty to continue to invest in them.
“I keep an open mind on nuclear, but I think the numbers as they stack up…do not stack up,” she concluded.
Other issues that the current independents have talked about as important to them include truth in political advertising laws, overturning last week’s electoral funding reform which they have labellede as “undemocratic”, and strengthening integrity in politics.
With the election yet to be called (although that could happen any day now), the reality of the first hung parliament in more than a decade draws closer. Support for the major parties has hit all-time lows, with one in three voters looking outside of the major parties.
Back in 2010, both Labor and the Coalition won 72 seats each and it led to Julia Gillard striking a deal with Adam Bandt, Andrew Wilkie, Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor to form a minority government. Could we see something similar this time? It’s very possible.