It’s not our election to vote in, but the consequences of this week’s US presidential election will impact every person on the planet. Especially women and girls.
That includes those in Australia, where polling shows that most of us would prefer Kamala Harris to win the presidency, but around one in four Australians would prefer to see Trump returned to the White House, according to a recent Lowy Institute poll. Just like in the US, there is a gender divide in the result.
The US is Australia’s biggest ally, with much of our future defence and security (and taxpayer dollars) tied into the AUKUS Alliance, which will see Australia purchasing US nuclear submarines.
Trump is keen on tariffs, or as he puts it, “my favourite word in the dictionary”. He’s hostile to free trade and has an isolationist agenda which could make the future unpredictable and carry more risk. Trump respects ‘strongmen’ and autocratic leaders and has little sympathy for oppressed populations internationally. He has sought to undermine a previous democratic election result and plans to recommence his plans to undermine the civil service.
His platform includes a push to protect American workers and farmers from “unfair trade”, including baseline tariffs of at least 10 per cent on “foreign-made goods”, and more severe tariffs on Chinese imports which would ultimately impact the economic growth of Australia’s biggest trading partner. Economists also predict his agenda from the US Federal Reserve could lead to high global inflation.
But the biggest consequence of a second Trump presidency, especially for women, will be what it does to embolden Australia’s own wannabe ‘strongmen’ across local, state and federal politics, as well as how a cultural shift that comes with lowering acceptable standards of leadership creeps into business and other areas.
Already, we’ve seen tactics that have worked from Trump entering Australian politics, including the use of derogatory and offensive language, his penchant for misinformation and making up facts and stories to suit the narrative of the moment, and a focus on attacking hard-fought for women’s rights.
Such tactics were evident just last month in the Queensland election, where abortion rights became a political plaything among conservative politicians and a pro-life movement has entered the new state parliament. Last month in South Australia, a bill to amend abortion rights that was described as “Trumpian” and “extreme” was just one vote away from passing.
Indeed, just last week at a University of Sydney meeting for Representatives Elect for the Student Representatives, several unnamed male students laughed at and tore up copies of a detailed investigation into sexual violence and hazing on campus. Footage of the incident was captured by Honi Soit, which also reported that the group hung a TRUMP 2024 banner inside the meeting room.
Climate change has barely featured in the election campaign, but both Trump and Harris couldn’t be further apart on their view on the issue. Harris must go further, but at least acknowledges the issue, describing climate change as an “existential threat”, Trump has previously used words like “hoax” on the matter. He’s expected to deprioritise scientific research, to pull out of the Paris Agreement (for a second time) and consider withdrawing the US from the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.
A Trump presidency would see global action on climate change deprioritised further, which would have consequences for Australia and especially our Pacific neighbours. Such a shift would come just as the 8th State of Climate report for Australia has found the country has warmed 1.51 degrees since 1910 when records began and will warm further without global action to reach net zero. The result for Australia and our region is more frequent and intense extreme weather events that will challenge our resilience to respond, rebuild and keep up.
Poll after poll shows that men are more likely to vote for Trump, while women are more likely to vote for Harris. This is particularly stark among younger voters, with a poll last week by NBC showing that 59 per cent of women aged 18 to 20 would vote for Harris compared with 42 per cent of men who’d vote for Harris.
Overall, Trump has been increasing his lead among male voters, now with a 52 per cent to 43 per cent lead over Harris – among men, in a survey by The Economist/YouGov. The divide is so vast that women are being reminded – via post it notes on tampon bins and the doors of bathrooms – that “no one sees you vote at the polls”, It’s a whisper to women in red states who might be fearing reprisal from husbands and other family members if they chose to vote for Harris over Trump.
Another thing to note on the gender gap in US politics is that its overall impact on the final result depends on the gender gap in those actually turning out to vote.
Traditionally, more women than men have done so, and so far in this election more women have cast an early vote. There has also been a ten point gap in the gender divide in who has voted early, with women making up the majority of those who’ve turned out to vote so far (amounting to around 40 per cent of the total who voted in the 2020 election).
Indeed, a poll out of Iowa Monday shared another interesting story: a massive 40-point gap margin in women over 65 supporting Harris over Trump. These women remember a time before Roe V Wade.
As a former senior adviser to Kevin Rudd has said in an Australian paper today, the “gamer bro” Trump supporter will be too lazy to actually show up to vote.
Women, meanwhile, have more to lose in this election, and it may show in the numbers that ultimately cast ballots, which could have ramifications globally, seeing political leaders taking notice and seeing they can’t use the dismantling of women’s rights to win votes.
We await the election result, which could be as soon as Wednesday afternoon in Australia or potentially weeks away.
Pictured at top of story: Trump following a meeting with health insurer CEOs in 2017.