Turnbull has had a dream run since he took the leadership. Skyrocketing polls, adoring media, and an electorate reacted with the dazed relief of a dentist’s patient when the drilling finally stops.
But you can’t make an omelette without cracking a few eggs, and in this case, one of Turnbull’s cracked eggs tried to decamp in a huff, was blocked at the last hurdle and is now hanging around stinking up the place. The whole process is almost as tortuous as what I just did to that egg metaphor.
Ian Macfarlane was elected to federal parliament by the good people of Groom (QLD) in 1998. He was a member of the Queensland Liberal party, which merged with the Queensland Nationals in 2008 to become the LNP.
The LNP is a state party, so every member of Liberal and National parties from QLD are now members of the LNP. Not too complicated for state MPs, but gets a bit tougher for Federal ministers. They are members of the LNP, but they also have to keep separate affiliations in Federal politics, where the LNP doesn’t exists.
So Macfarlane was a member of the Liberal party room in Canberra, and a member of the LNP in Queensland.
If you’re thinking that this sounds far too complicated to be in any way sensible, you’re almost certainly right.
Anyway, Macfarlane was one of the heavyweights behind Turnbull’s takeover in September. Because politics is all about service and giving selflessly to the nation, Turnbull had no qualms dropping him from the front bench, saying that while he “valued Macfarlane contribution over the years”, it was time to promote new blood, particularly more women. Hahaha.
Warren Truss (Nationals leader) and Barnaby Joyce (Deputy Leader), both conservatives from Queensland were (are) Abbott fanboys. Maybe not the best Machiavellian strategists though.
The appeal of smacking Turnbull AND getting another National in cabinet (the coalition has a quota for ministries based on party seats because, y’know, merit HAHAHA) may have overwhelmed their cool logical thought processes., and apparently their ability to count.
So Macfarlane agreed to leave the Liberal party and join the Nationals. It would have been a win for him because being off the back bench, back in the media and getting paid the full cabinet minsters salary again would have meant he could serve the nation and his electorate even more selflessly.
Macfarlane’s party machine in his electorate voted to allow him to jump ship, but the tangled wool arrangement of Queensland politics meant that it had to be approved by the state LNP executive as well.
They voted No, 14 to 12.
Such a close vote could bode ill for stability in the future (the lesson that maybe numpties may want to do their numbers more carefully before bounding out to the media next time might be lost on some of them) but the Federal Liberal party machine will come down on Qld like a ton of bricks after this). It should also be reassuring to the moderates that LNP leadership (Springborg for one) voted it down.
Macfarlane is now a dead man walking, preselection battle in his seat for the next election is likely to involve the use of WMDs.
The biggest problem for the majority of the country, who couldn’t give a rat’s bottom about the murkiness of Queensland politics, is that it will polarise the division between moderates and conservatives inside the collation even further.
Turnbull and the moderates won this stoush (just) and the Nationals are left looking pretty stupid (which may be a tautology given that Barnaby is their deputy leader) but it was very close, very stupid and very public, so the moderates will be seething and will read the Riot Act. Grown up conservative white men don’t take too well to such things and pronounced sulking/tantrums are likely to ensue.
The downside for the moderates is that a National will probably get Macfarlane’s seat next time around, even if he throws the ultimate dummy spit and quits early.
The entire nation is still a bit punch drunk after the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd/Abbott years, Turnbull was supposed to offer us a period of calm common sense and stability. Having the Nationals throwing rotten eggs at the party in full view of a gleeful press gallery is not calm, sensible or stable. And it’s by no means over yet, Eric Abetz hasn’t even started picking up his eggs yet.