Intimate partner violence is predicted to increase by 4.7 per cent for every 1°C rise in global temperature, a recent study from the UN has found.
According to the latest UN Spotlight Initiative, a high-impact program to end violence against women and girls, by 2090, 10 per cent of cases of intimate partner violence will be caused by climate change.
Under the pressure of rising temperatures putting extraneous demands on natural and human systems, pre-existing socio-economic and environmental factors will continue to negatively impact women and girls, putting them at risk of increased violence, financial instability, water scarcity and loss of shelter. Entrenched inequalities will be exacerbated, and patriarchal norms reinforced.
The report found that intimate partner violence could increase by up to 28 per cent during heatwaves and that gradual environmental changes such as desertification can lead to more human trafficking, sexual exploitation and abuse.
The report warns that gender-based violence will worsen as women and girls in affected regions face increasingly precarious circumstances. It also revealed that the severity and forms of violence currently experienced by some women and girls could increase in the future as temperatures rise, including femicide, trafficking, child marriage and rape as a weapon of war.
Certain groups are also disproportionately at risk of violence, such as women from Indigenous communities and female environmental human rights defenders.
“In public and political life around the world, many women and girl human rights defenders, women journalists and women who run for or hold public office and political decision-making positions are attacked viciously and often suffer gender-based violence,” said Volker Türk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights.
“Such acts are deliberate, directed at those seen as challenging traditional notions of family and gender or harmful traditional social norms. They are very often sexist, sexualised, and misogynistic, silencing and censoring their voices, and exacting profound physical and psychological harm. Their purpose is clear: to exercise control, to perpetuate subordination, and to crush the political activism and aspirations of women and girls.”
Other high risk categories include women living in climate-vulnerable regions such as the Pacific Islands, rural smallholder farmers, the urban poor, and individuals facing intersecting forms of discrimination such as disability, sexuality, age and race.
Countries in the Horn of Africa region have been experiencing years of drought, causing livestock and crop production loss and forcing families to resort to marrying off “girls as young as twelve to men more than five times their age,” according to Andy Brooks, UNICEF’s Regional Child Protection Advisor for Eastern and Southern Africa.
A 2024 study from Hawaii on the devastating fires in Lahaina, Maui, revealed that women experienced heightened vulnerability, sexual exploitation and intimate partner violence during that time, especially among Filipino migrant women workers.
In fact, one in six female survivors from the Filipino community reported feeling pressured to engage in sexual acts in exchange for basic necessities like food, shelter, clothing and money in the aftermath of the wildfires.
Over half of the women surveyed said they suffered more conflict at home and in their relationships, while 21 per cent said they felt unsafe in the places where they were sheltering.
The report calls for gender-based violence prevention initiatives and response at every level of climate policy with a view to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on women and girls.
The latest findings backs decades of warnings from feminist and women’s groups identifying the link between climate change and gendered violence.
Globally, almost one in three women has experienced some form of physical or sexual violence, often at the hands of intimate partners. The UN has described violence against women and girls as a “shadow pandemic” — one whose occurrence may actually be underreported due to stigma, lack of access to healthcare services or lack of awareness and knowledge.
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