It was incredible the first time to think that Donald Trump could rise to become president of the United States. The fact it’s now likely that he’ll return to the Oval Office for a second term in January is gobsmackingly astounding.
It’s also sending a disturbing lesson on accountability, not just to political leaders globally who seek to imitate Trump’s capacity for lies, but also to anyone with aspirations to hold some form of power.
Trump is now a convicted felon after being found guilty of fraud in a Manhattan court last month. He has also lost two defamation suits from writer E. Jean Carroll, who said Trump sexually assaulted her in the 1990s. She sued him for defamation when Trump denied the allegations and later added in a battery claim – a jury found Trump had sexually assaulted and defamed Carol. Trump still faces 57 felony charges across one state court and two separate federal districts.
How could anyone facing multiple court cases and the possibility of prison time, who is already a convicted felon and has been found by a jury to have sexually assaulted a woman, be up for any kind of leadership position?
Over the past decade, the decency barrier for entering races for leadership has dropped lower and lower.
Think back to 2016, when audio emerged of Trump boasting about making cruel sexual advances to women and “grabbing them by the pussy”. Many thought his campaign was done and dusted.
But Trump’s rise continued until November 2016, when he officially reached the pinnacle of power: elected President of the United States of America.
I recall the moment I realised his elevation would send shockwaves regarding standards of outwardly public behaviour internationally. It occurred during an election party at the University of Sydney, where the crowd had gathered for an expected Hillary Clinton victory. As states turned red on the big screen up front and the beer kept flowing amongst the daytime crowd of mostly youngish men, a small group of such men started issuing their own chants including, “lock her up” in reference to what Trump had said about his then-rival Clinton, and “drain the swamp”.
My capacity for surprise has been significantly diminished in recent years, as I have seen just what would-be and current leaders can get away with. Not just in the United States but here in Australia too. And not just in politics, but also in business and elsewhere. Desperate individuals chasing the populist vote take on Trump’s tactics, inspired by his disregard for decency and the lack of accountability that follows.
Much of Trump’s capacity for success in this period — and his career that came before it — has largely come down to luck.
His latest round of luck came this week, as the US Supreme Court granted him immunity for his role on January 6, when Trump supporters stormed the White House and attempted to stop Congress from declaring Joe Biden president in 2021. Chief Justice Roberts said in his judgement that a president can not be “prosecuted for exercising his core constitutional powers, and he is entitled, at a minimum, to a presumptive immunity from prosecution for all his official acts.”
The decision means Trump is unlikely to ever be held accountable for his role in the insurrection, and especially not before the November presidential election. Trump described it as a “big win for our constitution and democracy.”
Sonia Sotomayor, one of the three judges who dissented against the majority ruling, said the rationale would mean “the president is now a king above the law.”
As an added bonus, the Supreme Court decision will likely give Trump even more power in his second stint as president, presenting him more slack to cement some of his authoritarian-like promises.
But that’s not all, Trump’s luck doesn’t stop there.
Having won the Republican nomination again, he’s now going up against a Demoncrat opponent who—while not much older than him in years—is coming across as significantly less capable.
That luck extended to last Thursday’s debate between the two candidates where, despite Trump boldly sharing numerous lies, the media story was firmly stuck on President Joe Biden’s poor performance and questions regarding his capacity for continuing in the race and sustaining another four years as president.
Now, as speculation continues whether Biden will or won’t drop out of the race, his most likely successor should be current Vice President Kamala Harris, the very person Biden selected as his top pick in case something should happen to him.
Should that happen, Trump’s luck could continue – even as Harris wipes the floor with him on any debate stage. Trump happens to be running a race in a country that has still not yet been able to elect a woman.
Lucky Trump. The luckiest man in the world. At the right place and living at the right time in a world where actions have few consequences, at least for some people.