With Paul Fletcher retiring, could independent Nicolette Boele win Bradfield?

With Paul Fletcher retiring, could independent Nicolette Boele win Bradfield?

Liberal MP Paul Fletcher has announced his retirement from politics after 15 years, leaving a vacancy in his seat of Bradfield ahead of the next federal election.

Fletcher, the Manager of Opposition Business and Liberal frontbencher, is the second senior Liberal party figure to step away from politics in the last month, following Senate leader Simon Birmingham’s announcement in the final sitting week of parliament.

Fletcher was first elected as the representative of Bradfield in 2009 and has held several portfolios while the Coalition was in government between 2013 and 2022. He has been a leading moderate figure in the party.

Fletcher announced this morning he would not contest the 2025 election.

“Renewal is healthy, for people and institutions, and now is the right time to hand over the baton,” Fletcher said.

“I expect some outstanding people will put themselves forward to be the next Liberal candidate for Bradfield, and to serve the people of Bradfield with energy and commitment. That Liberal candidate, once chosen through our party processes, will have my full support.

“I will leave with a deep sense of gratitude for the opportunity to serve in Parliament and as a Cabinet Minister; a continued (if in some places tempered and better informed) faith in Australia’s democratic system; and considerable optimism about the future of this remarkable country we all love so much.”

Fletcher said his plan is to take time off to rest and to travel, before he returns to a career in the private sector.

The Liberal party has not yet announced who will be up for preselection to run for Bradfield in next year’s election, however Salesforce executive director Gisele Kapterian is expected to put her hat in the ring, the Sydney Morning Herald has reported.

Could an independent take Bradfield?

In 2022, independent candidate Nicolette Boele ran against Fletcher in Bradfield, winning nearly 47 per cent of the two-party preferred vote and turning the safe seat into a marginal one.

Her contest of the election resulted in Bradfield going to preferences in the count for the first time in 75 years. Fletcher suffered a 15.28 per cent swing against him, the largest against any Liberal incumbent in the 2022 election.

Boele has already announced she will run again for the seat in 2025.

Earlier this month, Fletcher, addressed the Sydney Institute, describing the teal independents as a “Green left con job”.

“These so-called spontaneous community movements, by apparently complete coincidence, appeared in a range of Liberal seats and made no appearance in Labor seats,” Fletcher said.

“The intention was to get people to think, ‘That nice teal candidate could almost be a Liberal, I’ll vote for her.'”

Following the announcement of Fletcher’s retirement Boele congratulated Fletcher on his career.

“While Paul Fletcher and I may disagree with each other on many things, there is much to respect and admire in his long period of service to our community and the country,” Boele said.

“I particularly want to note Mr Fletcher’s work in drafting strong vehicle emissions standards to reduce pollution from cars. It was a good move – although it was ultimately blocked by the Nationals and other climate sceptics in the Coalition partyroom.”

Boele said that after 75 years of Liberal party dominance, now is the time for Bradfield to change course.

“I’ve had thousands of conversations with members of our community this year who feel let down by the political parties,” Boele said.

“The supermarket shop has never been more expensive, our power bills keep rising, and our children and grandchildren can’t buy a home.

“As I continue to meet people across Bradfield, they tell me they want a representative who is loyal to locals, not to Peter Dutton.”

A redistribution in the area, thanks to the abolition of the seat of North Sydney, has reduced the nominal margin in Bradfield for the incumbent to just 2.5 per cent.

Feature image: Nicolette Boele.

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