Whether you’ve been following politics in the United States or not, there will be plenty to watch and maybe jump up and down about in the coming hours as some of the results from the Midterm elections come through.
For one, this could mark a significant turning point in the Trump Administration, given the strong possibility the Democrats could “flip the house”. Could, of course being the important word here. As we learnt during the presidential campaign in 2016, there is no such thing as a sure prediction.
At the time of publishing, Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight gave the Democrats a six in seven chance of winning the House (85.8%), and a one in six chance of winning control of the Senate (18%). Those figures can change quickly, so it’s worth checking the site for yourself throughout the day.
Writing last week, FiveThirtyEight noted that much of these changes could occur because of women, given women look set to vote for Democrats in record numbers.
It could just mark the watershed moment in America’s “Year of Women”, with record numbers of women nominated for the house, for the Senate and for Governor. Indeed, more than 100 women could be elected in the House for the first time.
These are the numbers of women running.
- 235 women nominated for the house, according to the Washington Post (some publications put this as high as 239)
- 22 women nominated for the Senate
- 16 women nominated for Governor (of the 36 states electing one today).
Currently, there are 107 female legislators in Congress, including 84 in the House and 23 in the Senate.
Four of the 16 women running for Governor could become the first women elected to such positions in their states.
There are 84 women of colour running for Congress, according to the New York Times, up 42 per cent from two years ago.
Here are some of the races that could mark significant firsts for women.
Stacey Abrams could become the first black woman to serve as governor, and had Oprah Winfrey helping out last week, door-knocking in Georgia. This will be a key and very exciting race to watch. She’s up against Republican Brian Kemp.
Christine Hallquist in Vermont is the US’ first transgender candidate for governor and has a good shot against Republican Phil Scott.
Deb Haaland could could become the first Native American woman to serve in Congress.
Krysten Sinema is the first openly bisexual candidate, and has a chance of joining Tammy Baldwin in the Senate, raising the number of LGBTQ+ members.
Ilhan Omar (pictured above), could become the first Somali-American elected to Congress. Omar and Rashida Tlaib, could become the first Muslim women in Congress.
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could become the youngest woman elected to Congress (she is 28), after she caused a major upset in June, defeating 10-term, congressman Joe Crowley in the Democratic nomination for New York’s 14th Congressional District.
As for what to watch on whether or not the Democrats take the house, TIME suggests following some of these super close races in order to get a sense of what way the votes are going.
- Amy McGrath (D) versus Andy Barr (R) for Kentucky’s 6th congressional district
- Jennifer Wexton (D) versus Barbara Comstock (R) for Virginia’s 10th congressional district