Australia is just months away from heading to the polls for the next federal election, and election polls indicate it won’t be a straightforward vote.
Last week, the Australian National University (ANU) released its first round of findings from the 2025 Election Monitoring Survey Series (EMSS). Researchers received responses from 3,500 Australians in October 2024 to gather their positions on Anthony Albanese’s government prior to the election.
Only 38 per cent of survey respondents have confidence in the federal government, and lead author of the study Professor Nick Biddle said this was not a good sign for Prime Minister Albanese.
“While dissatisfaction is not as low as in other countries, it is worth noting that dissatisfaction around 6 months out from the next federal election, if Parliament goes to full term, is more or less the same as dissatisfaction was in April 2022, just prior to the Morrison government losing the subsequent election,” Professor Biddle said.
While the study ultimately found Albanese had “significantly higher” favourability than Coalition leader Peter Dutton, voters are still unsure about how to vote in the upcoming election.
In fact, women voters are significantly more unsure of how they would vote in the next election (12.1 per cent) than men (6.7 per cent).
So, what’s causing the low levels of confidence in the federal government, and the uncertainty amongst women voters in particular?
Undoubtedly, being a world leader in today’s political climate is no easy task (although it is worth noting that many say so about Scott Morrison’s time in office, including Morrison himself).
Nevertheless, the source of both favourability and unfavourability towards Albanese can be found in his stances on some of the greatest challenges our world is facing.
Cost of living crisis
Albanese is contending with a cost of living crisis in Australia, leading to higher costs for everyday necessities like groceries and energy bills, and culminating in issues like rising inequality.
Cost of living is an issue impacting many countries globally, resulting in many incumbent governments losing power in elections this year.
Meanwhile, the housing crisis continues, with Australians facing higher rents and little relief for mortgage holders in terms of interest rates.
Today, new research from the Australian Homelessness Monitor 2024 reveals that rates of homelessness are now higher than pre-pandemic levels across most parts of the country, with agencies reporting a “significant increase” in the number of people seeking assistance in the past 12 months.
More than 10,000 Australians are becoming homeless every month, according to the report, as services say there is an increase in people who are employed seeking housing help, including nurses and teachers.
Challenges and inaction: climate change, gambling ads
At the start of this year, researchers from Flinders University found one of the biggest issues for voters was climate change.
This week, legal proceedings at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will continue, as Pacific Island nations and other stakeholders implore the international court to hold large emitters and fossil fuel producers accountable for the extreme damage to the environment.
Australia made its submission to the ICJ last week. Their argument, along with Germany and Saudi Arabia, contests the idea that states have obligations outside of the 2015 Paris Agreement when it comes to responding to the climate crisis.
While the Coalition’s nuclear energy plan is no better for climate-conscious voters, climate organisations in Australia are determine to push for greater reform on Australia’s current climate policies, which many say are not making the cut.
Elsewhere in politics this year, an issue that has come up time and time again has been gambling ads in Australia. Labor has failed to fulfil a blanket ban on gambling ads, originally proposed by the late Labor MP Peta Murphy.
Crossbenchers, including the ‘teal’ independents, have pushed Labor on this but have failed to yield a result from Albanese in terms of a blanket ban.
Gambling, while a legal activity in Australia, can be extremely problematic, especially for women: experts say while it is not a direct cause, gambling is certainly one factor of intimate partner violence and domestic violence in Australia.
Global conflict
Perhaps the PM’s biggest challenge would be the conflict in the Middle East.
Last week, Australia voted in line with 156 other countries at the UN General Assembly, demanding Israel end its “unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory as rapidly as possible”.
This vote was considered a significant shift in policy from the federal government, following years of Australia’s alignment with the US and, subsequently, Israel.
Meanwhile, one of Australia’s peak pro-Israel groups, the Zionist Federation of Australia, criticised this move, saying Labor’s shift had “undoubtedly contributed to a significant rise in Jew-hate in Australia”.
Last Friday, there was a firebombing attack that destroyed a synagogue in Melbourne. While authorities continue their investigation into the matter, it has been labelled a “terrorist attack” by many leaders, including Albanese. It’s not the first anti-Semitic attack, and many are concerned it will not be the last.
Dutton blamed Albanese’s “grotesque stance” on the conflict in the Middle East, which he said has created a hostile climate for Australia’s Jewish community.
Albanese defended his stance on anti-Semitism, and in the aftermath of the firebombing attack, committed an additional $32.5m to the Executive Council of Australian Jewry over the next 18 months to increase security for Jewish communities.
Winning policies from Albanese
The Albanese Labor government managed to get 45 bills through the Senate in the final sitting week of Parliament for 2024.
One such success was Labor’s housing policy, thanks to backing from the Greens. The legislation, which includes Labor’s Help to Buy shared equity scheme and the Build to Rent tax incentives, could help 40,000 first home buyers purchase a property.
In February this year, the government was successful in seeing its redesigned Stage 3 tax cuts becoming law, creating some progressive tax changes for Australians that were calculated to deliver $84 billion to low and middle-income earners over the next ten years.
The Albanese Government has also outlined a number of policies that will help with the cost of living crisis, especially for young people.
Last month, the government unveiled a new policy that will reduce student debt by 20 per cent on 1 July 2025. The scheme will wipe about $16 billion of student debt in total, according to government figures. For an average university graduate with a HECS-HELP debt of $27,600, the plan will remove $5,520.
Combined with Labor’s changes to indexation announced in May’s budget this year, this means by next financial year almost $20 billion of student debt will be wiped.
Additionally, the government proposed a policy that will give university students who go on placement – like nurses and teachers – a payment of $319.50 per week throughout their placement periods, to help with “placement poverty”. This policy will also kick in from 1 July 2025.
It is important to note that these policies on education are hinged on the condition that Labor get re-elected for another term.
In May this year, the Albanese government committed to funding a 15 per cent wage increase for early childhood education and care workers over the next two years.
Phase one of this plan, a 10 per cent wage increase, will take effect this month, and a further 5 per cent is expected by December 2025. However, just how effective this policy will be and how childcare centres – which are ultimately businesses – will implement it remain to be seen.