Gladys Berejiklian’s former electorate of Willoughby is in doubt for the Liberal party in the wake of Saturday’s by-election, with independent candidate Larissa Penn closing in as vote counting continues.
On Saturday night, Liberal candidate for the NSW north shore seat Tim James said he was “very confident” with the result for the Perrottet government.
But now, pre-poll votes counted on Monday show independent candidate Larissa Penn is narrowing the lead of James, who has so far suffered a 19.2 per cent swing against him.
On Monday night, ABC chief election analyst Antony Green said the seat was in doubt for the Liberals as vote counting continues.
“From the preference flows released today, Willoughby remains doubt,” Green said on Twitter.
“Who would have thought of these four by-elections that Willoughby would be the close one.
“This is the result with Federal election implications.”
With 32.7 per cent of the vote counted, Tim James currently sits at 51.9 per cent and Larissa Penn sits at 48.1 per cent. On-the-day votes and pre-poll votes have been counted, but the final result will not be known until postal votes are counted.
Even with the result not yet known, it is significant that the state government has suffered a nearly 20 per cent swing in a seat that has been considered very safe Liberal party territory. The party has held the seat for 30 years, and Berejiklian was a very popular local member.
The location of Willoughby overlaps with the federal seat of North Sydney, currently held by Liberal MP Trent Zimmerman, who is facing a strong challenge from independent Kylea Tink at the upcoming federal election.
Speaking to Women’s Agenda, Tink said the swing towards an independent in Willoughby is really exciting from her campaign’s perspective, even if it is at the state level.
“What I’m seeing with this swing in Willoughby is thousands of voices in my community who are standing up and saying they want to be heard,” Tink said.
“There was a moment on the night of the state by-election when I saw Tim James claim victory, and I heard Antony Green saying the seat would go to the Liberals… I thought it was pre-emptive and it was so reflective of our current political system. Everyone just thinks it’s predictable. And it’s not, and it shouldn’t be.
“I know that the federal election is very separate to a state by-election, and one of things that I’m mindful of with polls and numbers is they’re not as insightful as getting out and having real conversations with people.”