Malcolm Turnbull's sinking popularity: Can he win back female voters? - Women's Agenda

Malcolm Turnbull’s sinking popularity: Can he win back female voters?

When Tony Abbott’s short-lived prime ministership came to a close, many of us breathed a sigh of relief. Few Australians felt his ousting was unwarranted, and even fewer still held much animosity towards Malcolm Turnbull who had played Brutus in the saga. 

Tony Abbott had been a fiercely unpopular leader and our collective empathy didn’t stretch enough for us to forget it. Turnbull, on the other hand, had played a strong political game for years prior to becoming PM. Conservatives trusted his nous in business and economics, while his stance toward climate change, marriage equality and innovation, seemed to check out with the left. 

So although Turnbull’s betrayal of Abbott ostensibly mirrored the Gillard/Rudd debacle, Australia reacted completely differently. Gillard had been maligned for her role in Rudd’s demise, whereas Turnbull seemed to rise from Abbott’s ashes, breathing new hope and optimism into the electorate. (It also helped of course, that he was a man.)

In his first weeks in government, Turnbull was infallible. He effortlessly won back the coalition’s female voters who had all but disappeared under Abbott. He doubled the number of women in his cabinet, promoting the first female Minister for Defence in Marise Payne. He likewise took no time in addressing the scourge of domestic abuse, committing $100 million dollars to the crisis. 

In addition to this, he fiercely pushed forward with his ‘National Innovation and Science Agenda’, promising to invest $1.1 billion into “establishing Australia as a leading innovation system”. Indeed, all guns were blazing, until, they weren’t.

In the past few weeks something’s happened to leave Australia disillusioned. Approval for the coalition has reached an unprecedented low with Newspoll this week suggesting Labor now leads 51% to the LNP’s 49% on a two-party preferred basis. The same poll a month ago, indicated that the LNP was ahead a whopping 6 points- 53% to Labor’s 47%

Likewise, Turnbull’s female supporters have dwindled considerably. According to Ipsos polling, his approval rating with women has slid 13% since October- 68% to 55%.

So what’s gone wrong?

The issue is two-fold. One, disunity inside the Liberal Party threatens to topple Turnbull at any given moment and two, it almost certainly will, if he doesn’t start asserting himself. 

Turnbull is finding it increasingly difficult to reign in the troops. His feud with Treasurer Scott Morrison hasn’t gone unnoticed. Their inability to agree on big policy looks sloppy and volatile. Add to this Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi challenging “the leftist agenda of big government”, as well as Kevin Andrews’ recent interview about contesting the Liberal leadership, and it’s fair to say that Malcolm’s had a tough time of it. 

On Monday’s Q&A, Minister for Industry, Christopher Pyne, conceded the government had slumped, stating “disunity is always unhelpful. Of course it is, I mean it’s obviously a statement of the bleeding obvious.”

He’s right, obviously. Disunity is unhelpful, but it’s also damaging. It causes widespread unease and prompts voters to look for alternative options. The latest Newspoll confirms this. 

The good news for Turnbull is that all is not yet lost. He was elected to lead the coalition and the country and despite conflicts in opinion, the majority of his party acknowledges he’s their best chance of retaining government. He also still leads Shorten as preferred Prime Minister by a considerable margin.

But he cannot sit on his hands and hope for the best. His old game of partially gratifying both the left and right no longer works as Prime Minister. He needs to silence the de-stabilisers by asserting himself as leader. Every time Turnbull wavers on a decision, his voters waver too. 

Ultimately Turnbull has to find his voice and create a narrative for what he’s doing. We need bold ideas and decisive action. We need to feel stable. If successful, he will win back female voters and the electorate at large. If unsuccessful, he will almost certainly, lose the next election. 

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